David Courard-Hauri 132 Olin Email: david.courard-hauri@drake.edu Phone: 515-271-3812 Fax: 515-271-3702

Environmental Decision Making (ENSP-154) Spring 2005 Syllabus Office Hours: MW 10-11 am, R 9-10 am, F 10-12 am, or by app't

Overview: There are a number of important techniques that are widespread in environmental decision making, but which are generally seen as "black boxes" by decision makers. A question is asked of the scientific/economic community, and a number is returned. However, the formulation of the question and the techniques used in the analysis are often critical to the results returned, so it is imperative that policy makers and those involved in environmental decisions are at least acquainted with these techniques, their value, and their shortcomings.

In this course, we will take a look at some of the most importantant of these techniques. We will construct simple models and analyses to get a good sense of what these tools can do for us, and where they break down. You will learn how to use these tools yourself in future work, and perhaps more importantly you will learn to be a skeptical consumer of information provided by others.

Class Time: Tuesday/Thursday, 11-12:15
Final Exam: Wednesday, May 11, 9:30-11:20

Reading: Readings can be found online at Drake's e-reserves site. It is not ideal from a convenience standpoint, but will save you about $120 in costs. This is the first time I have tried to do things this way, so feedback on how it is working for you will be appreciated. I will explain e-reserves in class when the site is ready. Readings will be assigned at least one week before they are due, and the information will be put up on Blackboard weekly.

Problem Sets There will be 11 problem sets. They will be due on the date shown below.

Grading: Your final grade will be made up of the problem sets (200 pts), a cumulative final exam (120 pts), and a class participation grade (100 pts) based upon participation in class discussions, attendance, etc. I will keep track of how often you participate, so do not ignore this significant fraction of your grade. The problem sets will be worth 20 pts each, with your lowest score dropped.

Introduction

1/18: Administrivia/Introduction

Dynamic Modeling

1/20: Why model? Gallopin/Raskin
1/25: Spreadsheet Modeling. Singer
1/27: Spreadsheet Population Model (top-down vs bottom-up).
Problem Set 1 due. Answers
2/1: Stock-and-Flow Modeling. Brown
2/3: Stock-and-Flow in Excel.
Problem Set 2 due. Answers
2/8: Excel Ecosystems Model.
2/10: "Systems Models" and the Limits to Growth. Meadows
Problem Set 3 due. Answers

Economic Modeling

2/15: Into to economic analysis: static efficiency. Costanza, Intro to Ecological Economics
2/17: Discussion of the history of economics
2/22: What is value? Bishop and Welsh (in Sexton)
2/24: Reading Nordhaus, economic modeling.
Problem Set 4 Due Answers
Glossary of terms in the Nordhaus reading
3/1: Model Interpretation: Nordhaus vs. Meadows Nordhaus
3/3: Why do Cost Benefit Analysis? Goulder
Problem Set 5 due. Answers
3/8: Main pieces of a CBA. Hall, Portney
3/10: Future Discounting.
3/15: Valuing the Biosphere: Where Does Economics Break? Costanza (refresh your memory), Pearce, Courard-Hauri
3/17: CBA Discussion
Problem Set 6 due. Answers
3/22-3/24: Spring Break
3/29: Market-Based Regulation. Jasanof

Uncertainty and Risk Analysis

3/31: Relevant Statistics.
Problem Set 7 due. Answers
4/5: Why Uncertainty? Morgan
4/7: Calculating Uncertainty.
Problem Set 8 due. Answers
4/12: Monte-Carlo Analysis and Crystal Ball. Kahneman
4/14: What is Risk? Nero
Problem Set 9 due. Answers
4/19: Calculating Risk I. Sexton
4/21: Calculating Risk II. Pimmentel
Problem Set 10 due. Answers
4/26: Risk Perception/Communication.

Conclusions

4/28: Alternative Models. Lovins
Problem Set 11 due. Answers
5/3: Putting It All Together.
5/5: Wrap-up discussion.

Dr. David Courard-Hauri Environmental Science and Policy Program Drake University Phone: 515-271-3812 Fax: 515-271-3702 Email: david.couard-hauri@drake.edu