Preface

Every campaign year, Republican presidential hopefuls flock to the state of Iowa in an attempt to woo the voting population. While the demographics of Iowa are anything but representative of the United States as a whole, the position of the Iowa Straw Poll and the Iowa Precinct Caucuses as first political tests is enough to secure its importance. For this reason, those who hope to secure their partyís presidential nomination work frantically, unceasingly, and sometimes comically in order to promote their image. The summer of 1999 was no different. Presidential candidates Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Orrin Hatch, Lamar Alexander, Alan Keyes, Steve Forbes, Elizabeth Dole, and George W. Bush, to name several, set up camp in Iowa and began their campaigns, attempting to entice Iowa constituents. Shortly after the results of the Iowa Straw Poll had been calculated, this paper was composed in an effort to describe, analyze, and evaluate all that occurs during the first political battles in Iowa.

Early Problems and Possibilities in Iowa

In dealing with any contest that holds significant gains or rewards, the competition is, as a rule, fierce and unrelenting. In the case of a Presidential campaign, the colloquial phrase "every little bit counts" holds intense meaning. Candidates cannot ignore any aspect or phase of their drive toward the White House. When examining the early stages of the Presidential 2000 campaign, the Iowa Precinct Caucuses indisputably serve as one of the most important events; hence, the months leading up to this January or February date are crucial to the candidatesí campaigns. By aggressively honing their battle tactics in Iowa for months before the precinct caucuses and by performing well in the Iowa Straw Polls, candidates for the year 2000 can establish themselves as viable contenders and in turn secure their places on the National ballot.

A few words can be said surrounding the historical and current significance of the Iowa Precinct Caucuses. Since 1972, the Iowa Caucuses have played a major role in determining winners and losers in the nominating campaigns. Noteworthy is Jimmy Carter, who was virtually nameless until his showing in Iowa led him to the Presidency in 1976 (Drake, Iowaís First). Although the demographics of Iowa can in no way be credited with being representative of the United States as a whole, there do exist some benefits to holding the first poll in the small farming state.

In all its smallness, Iowa allows voters the opportunity to meet with the candidates. Also, given that candidates typically focus the entirety of their energies on Iowa in the beginning of the campaign, Iowans enjoy the undivided attention of most candidates and intense media coverage (Drake, What is). Voters in Iowa are better able than those in most post-Iowa Caucus states to get clear up-close pictures of the possible nominees. Because of its position as the state with the earliest tallied voting opportunity and the aforementioned qualities, Iowa is acknowledged as the legitimate first test for Presidential hopefuls. In the words of Iowa caucus expert Hugh Winebrenner, "ÖIowaÖ(is a) big part of the game, and the candidates have to play the game" (qtd. in "Caucus expertÖ"). Indeed, candidates do need to "play the game;" that is, if they endeavor to emerge as reasonable contenders for the Presidency. Here, the only candidate brave enough to break the mold and forgo the Iowa Straw Poll was John McCain. What remains to be seen, then, will be his success in the next year of campaigning.

In their pursuit to perform well at the Iowa Caucuses, it is imperative that candidates begin early to woo Iowans. At times, this shameless attempt to impress such a small constituency becomes somewhat ridiculous. Yet, any candidate who truly wants to have a shot at receiving his or her party nomination must jump on the Iowa bandwagon. In each campaign cycle, candidates begin earlier and earlier to establish a presence in Iowa. Within the two-year time span between President Clintonís inauguration and the beginning of 1999, Presidential candidates for the year 2000 had already spent 252 days in the state of Iowa (Decaire, Caucus Expert). Since the onset of the new-year, that number has grown enormously. Seemingly ignoring the other 49 states, candidates frequently locate their first campaign offices in Iowa, hiring numerous staffers and hundreds of volunteers for the sole purpose of getting their messages out to the voters of Iowa.

Many candidates go to painful and sometimes comical measures in order to appear "Iowa friendly." In the case of George W. Bush, he wasted only a few hours in Iowa before he was photographed beside the first tractor and bale of hay (Washington Post). Riding farm equipment, eating corn on the cob and kissing barnyard animals - particularly pig s- are all included in every candidateís repertoire.

Along a somewhat more mainstream line, candidates make unabashed attempts at getting into the hearts of Iowans. George W. Bush promised to support government ethanol subsidies (WashingtonPost). Al Gore proclaimed, "Together, we have to lift up the farmers who are hurting right nowÖI will fight to make sure no Iowa farmer is left behind by the prosperity" (qtd. in "Gore KicksÖ"). Even Bill Bradley got into the Iowa farming spirit when he told Iowa union workers that, "one of my absolute key objectives is to make sure that more Americans, working families in America, get on this prosperity train" (Qtd. in "Gore, BradleyÖ").

In and of themselves, these statements do not appear out of the ordinary or untruthful. It is obvious, though, that the promises are contrived. This is not to say that Bush, Gore, Bradley, and the other candidates do not actually care about Iowa, rather, it is that they might care less, or at least spend considerably less time in Iowa, if it were not for the looming caucuses.

So where does the line between honest campaigning and shameless marketing lie? While it may be artificial and, occasionally, frivolous, the candidates have no choice but to "play the game." Sure, Dole, Bush, Gore, and their contenders could denounce Iowa campaigning as ridiculous, meaningless, and, at times, feigned. But in reality, where would that leave the candidates? Probably at home with Lamar Alexander. Consequently, Bill Bradley will continue to use his hired organizers in each of the six regions of Iowa (Bill Bradley). Gore and his staff will gear up their "99 County Caucus Blitz" in an effort to reach each and every Iowan (Algore2000), and George W. Bush will spend long, hot, expensive days at picnics, farms, lakes, and churches, all in an attempt to win over Iowa (WashingtonPost). In some ways, the Presidential candidates act like children. As one candidate begins the Iowa tour earlier in the Presidential season, the others must attempt to outdo him or her, starting even earlier. As much money as one candidate appears to have, it can be assured that the next candidate will attempt to elicit more. In fact, these are not children-simply men and women who will try virtually anything in order to clinch the most important early group of voters - Iowans.

For as much flack as the Iowa Precinct Caucuses receive for being a premature "maker or breaker" of candidates, the Iowa Straw Poll is held even earlier, yet, in some ways holds just as much weight. The Iowa Straw Poll comes in August when Republican candidates are fresh from their home states and, often times, unestablished elsewhere. Subsequently, in the midst of the candidateís honest tries at relaying their hopes and beliefs for America, they are forced into being inspected, evaluated, and finally categorized "winner" or "loser" by a group of unknown Midwesterners. On this basis, candidates have even more of a reason to start early to entice Iowans. As in the case of the year 2000 Presidential race, the Iowa Straw Poll can throw a well-faring candidate into a winnerís spotlight and it can send another home.

The importance of the Straw Poll rests in the fact that the American media treats it as an early fact of candidatesí viability. The Straw Poll offers a preview of the Iowa Caucus, which, without a doubt, is the most determining event in a presidential candidateís early race. Although many believe, as in the case of Ann Dougherty, communications director for the state Republican committee, that "the poll shows which candidates are successful at getting supporters to turn out at important times," such a premature test can only be harmful to candidates and to American voters (Decaire, GOP straw).

Already, the media and the candidates have latched onto who has essentially "won" and "lost" at the Iowa Straw Poll. The George W. Bush website shows an Ames Straw Pole emblem and screams at the site viewer "Governor Bush Thanks Iowans for Straw Poll Victory!" Bush even has the bravado to articulate, "Öthe victory (at the Straw Poll) put me on the road to earning the nomination of the Republican Party" (Iowa.georgebush.com). Conversely, the website of Lamar Alexander reads, "I am ending my campaign for president today. My heart wants to keep going, but there is no realistic way to do it" (Lamar Alexander): this only two days after his "defeat" at the straw polls.

The situations of Alexander and Bush overwhelmingly exemplify the meaning of the phrase "snap judgment." As the news media feeds on their desire to communicate winners and losers to the public, they are in turn heavily influencing American voters. Headlines, such as, "Bush Wins," "George W. is Favored by the Nation," and "Lamar Alexander Suffers Harsh Defeat" all serve to persuade the public as to who is the "best" candidate. Looking at national media coverage, it is no wonder that Bush and Gore are winning the polls. Certainly their leads could be results of the fact that they truly are the best candidates for the presidency. However, it is equally likely that between the Iowa Straw Poll and the reporting of the Iowa Straw Poll, a virtual "consensus" has been made, right or wrong, among Americans. For right now, all that the candidates can do is to wait and see how the contest plays out-if Americans will continue to ride the "Iowa Straw Poll Results bandwagon" or if they will investigate and evaluate all candidates equally before to vote.

Despite the fact that Iowa represents only one small state among fifty, candidates early on give the state almost one hundred percent of their effort. However ridiculous it may seem, Presidential contenders are in effect bound to the state-forced to entice, impress, and control it. Notwithstanding its unrepresentative demographics, Iowa serves as one of the most powerful determinants in a candidateís early career. Indeed, for as long as the news media continues to recount virtual winners and losers in Iowa, and for as long as the American voting public accepts the mediaís accounts, candidates who desire to have a true chance at the Presidency will continue to invade, persuade, and fight over Iowa.

Epilogue

Almost a full year has passed since candidates began campaigning intensely in Iowa, allowing for an opportunity to truly evaluate its significance. Using the Iowa Straw Poll as an indicator, Americans saw George W. Bush virtually crush the rest of the Republican contenders, with Elizabeth Dole securing a strong second-place finish. Behind these two front-runners came less popular candidates, such as Alan Keyes, Lamar Alexander, and Steve Forbes. So where did they end up?

Not surprisingly, George W. Bush continues to be one of the most promising competitor for the Republican nomination. Of great interest is the fact that John McCain, the candidate who strayed from the norm in his refusal to participate in the Iowa Straw Poll, spent several months directly in line with Bush with respect to popularity. Likewise, Elizabeth Dole, who seemed to hold much promise, dropped out of the presidential race not long after the Iowa Straw Polls. Continuing their losing trends from the Straw Poll into several other political contests, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, and Lamar Alexander also dropped out of the race, but only after depleting their money resources or being sufficiently embarrassed by their almost nonexistent popularity. Among the Democrats, Al Gore has remained just as strong throughout the fall and on into the spring as he was in the summer of 1999. Whereas Bill Bradley seemed promising as a potential challenger to Gore, he only made it as far as about one-sixth of the nationís primaries and caucuses before he was forced to admit defeat. As was seen within the Republicans, those Democrats finishing low in Iowa continued to receive low approval from Americans and consequently dropped out after a few months.

Comparing early results in Iowa to candidate standings several months later seems to proveÖalmost nothing. While some candidates who enjoyed great early success in Iowa continued to be favored on into the early months of spring, others were actually inclined to drop out within only a few months or weeks. Similarly, it is proven that a candidate need not even compete in Iowa in order to do well in the ensuing primaries. Thus it can only be stated that, while Iowa is not an ultimate "maker or breaker" of oneís political fate, it is a time of revelation and great excitement.
Works Cited
AlGore2000.com."The Iowans for Gore 99 County Blitz." 30 August 1999.

Billbradley.com. "Bradley Campaign Steps Up Organizing Efforts in Iowa." 21 September 1999.

Decaire, Mike. "Caucus expert: Role of Iowa caucuses smaller than in past but still important." CyberCaucus 2000 News Service February 1999.

Decaire, Mike. "GOP straw poll set for Aug. 14; only Iowans can participate." CyberCaucus 2000 News Service May 1999.

Decaire, Mike. "Gore kicks off run for White House, Gephardt offers key support." CyberCaucus2000 News Service March 1999.

Drake.edu."Iowaís First in the Nation Caucus." 21 September 1999.

Drake.edu."What is a Caucus?" 21 September 1999.

Iowa.georgebushcom."Governor Bush Thanks Iowans for Straw Poll Victory." 21 September 1999.

Lamaralexander.com."Lamar Alexander for President." 21 September 1999.

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Washingtonpost.com."In Iowa, Bush Hits Rhetorical Notes, Trail." 21 September 1999.
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