How does the news media influence the electoral prospects of presidential candidates? One way is by giving large amounts of coverage to some and little or none to others. This can make or break a candidateís campaign as shown in the early stages of the 2000 presidential election cycle. The Washington Postís website shows that George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore received the most print coverage with 94 and 99 articles written respectively as of December 2, 1999. Bill Bradley followed with 69 articles, and the ghosts of the Republican party come trailed far behind with 31 articles on John McCain, 18 on the publisher Steve Forbes, 8 on Gary Bauer, and 3 on Alan Keyes.1
A second route of media influence lies in the tone and content of coverage. The media is quick to report on a candidate's mistakes and vulnerabilities. Media-driven "mini-flaps" often deal with character issues and images. As the primary season moves forward and voters direct increasing attention toward the campaign, the costs of political misteps resulting in negative media coverage become multiplied.
THE MONEY MACHINE
The first mini-flap in the summer of 1999 focused on Republican hopeful George W. Bush and his money machine. Herbert Alexander, professor emeritus of political science form the University of Southern California, summed up Bushís fundraising efforts by saying, "Itís amazing, every time Bush goes out, it seems he comes back with another million dollars or more."2 Has the Texas governor bought his front-runner status? Many are shaking their heads, disappointed that Bush has turned his back on campaign finance reforms that were set in the 1970s. Ray Romer, national Democratic chairman, was one to criticize Bushís bypassing of public funds in order to avoid spending caps that come along with those funds. The Democrats are green with envy from all the money the GOP front-runner has been able to raise with individual contributions of $1,000 or less and political action committee donations of $5,000 or less.3
George W. Bush will enjoy freedom from spending limits. This will allow him to purchase time slots for campaign ads. Bush will also be able to go dollar for dollar with Steve Forbes, another deep-pocketed Republican. Forbes has also chosen to forego public funds. Juleanna Glover Weiss, spokeswoman for Forbes, claims that Forbes has rejected government funding because it is wrong, but Bush made the decision not to accept the federal matching funds because he wants to win.4 Can anyone blame Bush for wanting to win? Why go into the campaign if the candidate has the intention of doing things only half-way? This winning attitude is the reason that the more than 108,000 contributors have put their money and faith into George W. Bush. The Republicans want to win. It looks as if Bushís opponents will have to surpass Bush in other areas to succeed.
Is a precedent being set that will only allow the elite to become elected? Lamar Alexander, Dan Quayle, and Elizabeth Dole all dropped out of the race due to the lack of campaign funds. George W. Bushís phenomenal funds in such an early stage of the campaign is forcing others, who may be more suitable for the office, to drop out. It is a sad day in America if a president will only become president if he or she has enough money to buy the office. The country has not intended to place the White House on the auction block, but, as the months of fundraising fly by, Bushís bid is in and it is definitely the highest. Things look good for Bush supporters, but what will happen in the future if the candidate with all the money is an absolute crook? Does character count?
COCAINE QUESTIONS
The emphasis moved away from the money Texas governor Bush was raising to cocaine allegations on August 20. This mini-flap surged for more than ten days and continues to flicker whenever Bushís name and the question of character are brought together. When the story first came out, analysts were saying that it would be unlikely for the Bush campaign to be derailed by unsubstantiated rumors of cocaine. In a telephone CNN/ Time poll, 942 American adults were asked whether or not apparent drug use in Bushís 20s should disqualify him from being President. Eleven percent said yes and eighty-four percent said no. Bush has said, "Iíve made mistakes in the past, and Iíve learned from my mistakes."5 Maybe the public can relate with this sentiment, but others look to the questions of drugs and alcohol as being metaphors for something more important. Not only is the President the most powerful leader in the world, but he is also a role model to American children. Even though Bush said, "I have told the American people all Iím going to tell them... I donít want to send a signal to children that whatever I may have done is O.K.," in a news conference in Columbus, Ohio August 26, it does send a message to children that they can get away with drug use and later run for president.
No evidence has appeared to prove George W. Bushís cocaine use, but neither the campaign nor the reporters have let the question die. Bush may be standing up for the principle of privacy. Answering one question could lead to more questions and the cycle could continue. Where will the candidates draw the line? Bush advisers are worried that the manner in which Bush responded to the allegations could come across as being evasive and Clintonesque with his vague, half-way answers. Mark Geurrieri, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, said of the Bush strategy, "This is probably the worst way of handling any kind of controversy or scandal. Instead of extinguishing the fire, he continues to fan the flames with these word games."6
It may have been a strategic move to keep the story alive for more publicity. In such an early stage of the campaign, the damage from allegations of this nature may not have as much impact as they would months later as the primary draws near. Bush does take the risk of the question being brought up again, and he better count on a return of the cocaine allegations if he is to receive the Republican nomination. The public may think the issue tame after the scandal that rocked the Clinton administration. Bush vows to restore the dignity and honor to the office of presidency if elected.
Alex Castellanos, GOP consultant, states, "The campaign hasnít heated up, the media has. Itís more about the press than the politics."7 Are the media being too intrusive with the endless character questions? The consensus seems to be that instead of pressuring Bush about drug use the media should pressure Bush into giving the public more ideas and policies that he intends to offer. Barbara Bush is among those who think the emphasis should be on what someone has accomplished and what they have done in public policy.
Whether or not George W. has done anything is up for debate. Some may attribute his early success to more who Bush is than what he has done. Mrs. Bush even goes as far as to say that it is irrelevant whether a presidential candidate used drugs in the past.8 The phrase "youthful indiscretion" was tossed around as the media and political analysts tried to decipher a general rule for just how far back character questions should reach. The boundaries of youth have stretched with people remaining younger longer, attending post secondary schools, and putting off marriage and child birth. If Bush is to remain immune to "mistakes" that he made in his years of youthful indiscretion, then should 18 year-olds face long prison terms for doing what Bush says he may or may not have done?9
RUNNING FROM REPUBLICANS
Pat Buchanan is running from the Republican party. The seniors in the media industry took an interest in the possibility of a third-party nominee and the color it could bring to the 2000 campaign. Pat Choate, the former Reform party leader, made an appearance on September 13, 1999, on CNNís Inside Politics. Choate said that Buchanan was ninety percent decided on leaving the Republican party. Choate was also confident that Buchanan would take a minimum of twenty-five percent of the vote and take the Reform party to major party status. David Broder disagreed somewhat with Choateís analysis. Broder declared that Buchanan had burned his bridge with the Republican party, so his only option would be to swing over to the Reform party; no one likes a swinger.10 Buchanan would have difficulty earning the Reform party nomination due to varying social views. Buchanan is against abortion, homosexuality, illegitimacy, immigration, sexual license, moral decay, and godlessness, and he is not prepared to abandon or soften any of these views.
Pat Buchananís ideas about trade and economic nationalism run parallel to the Reform partyís but his views on two issues, aside from social views, will keep him from receiving the Reform partyís nomination. Buchanan votes no for the addition of Puerto Rico as the fifty-first state, and yes on the addition of Quebec. Broder rips into Buchanan for not supporting Puerto Rico in the article "Good timing for a third party" printed September 16, 1999. Broder tried to lay down the race card by implying that Buchanan would not vote on a minority state but would vote for a white Canadian Province. Buchanan sees Mexico as the biggest threat to stability in the Western hemisphere which smells fishy after Broderís racial accusations. This stance has nothing to do with race, but merely the fact that Mexicoís population is growing out of control. Pat Buchanan also lacks the support from the man he would most want in his corner, Minnesota Reform party leader and former pro-wrestler Jesse Ventura. Ventura would rather see Donald Trump run for the partyís nomination than Buchanan, who doesnít hold true to the partyís views.
Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats want Buchanan to leave the Republican party due to the votes he will draw from either side, but the Republicans in particular will be hit hard by the third party. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press asked 1,205 adults if Buchanan could hurt Bush by leaving the Republican party and taking some conservative votes with him. The poll found that Buchanan could hurt Republicans if the gap closes between Democratic front-runner Al Gore and GOP favorite George W. Bush. Bush currently holds fifty-four percent to Goreís thirty-nine percent. If the vote were to go three ways with the addition of Buchanan, Bush would drop to fifty percent and Gore would drop to thirty-five percent, leaving Buchanan with nine percent of the votes. A nine percent that would in no way bring the Reform party to major party status, but would definitely create a close race between the Republicans and Democrats.
Third-party candidates seldom have a chance of winning. More often than not, when voters across America become fed up with the two-party gridlock in Washington, many will vote for the third-party candidate to make a point and scare the mainstream. The Reform party needs to find a candidate who will promise to focus on fundamental issues and who is powerful enough to build a public consensus around them.11 Jesse Ventura may have been able to win the governorship of Minnesota, but it is doubtful that a Reform party candidate will be elected president in the near future. Alongside the fact that Buchanan will not be nominated by the Republican party, the near $13 million taxpayer dollars that are available to the Reform party may be all the motivation Buchanan needs to seek the nomination. Russ Verney, outgoing Reform party chairman, says "The Reform Party has the ability to provide $12.6 million in federal funds to the nominee. I think thatís a pot of honey that attracts a lot of flies--and a couple of bears."12
Ross Perot put the Reform party on the map in 1992 when he ran against President Bill Clinton and incumbent President George Bush. The Texas billionaire was able to spend an enormous amount of money on TV slots in which he conveyed his ideas to the American public using the infamous pie chart. Perot had the fortune to create his fame. Buchanan lacks both. Despite the clash in social views, Buchanan may have met his match within the Reform party.
CLINTON FATIGUE
After the eruption of a possible third-party candidate, the media began to focus in on Vice President Al Gore and the Clinton fatigue factor. Goreís campaign was concerned about the implications that might follow if Gore identified closely with the Clinton administration. The scandal-weary public will be happy to see Clintonís presidency come to an end. The sense of disgust that looms over Clintonís administration reminds people of Watergate. Gore may have shot himself in the foot by not speaking out about Clintonís behavior during the Lewinsky scandal. In a national poll conducted August 30- September 2, fifty-three percent of 1,526 random adults said they were "just plain tired" of Clinton. Eighty-three percent agreed that it was not fair to blame Vice President Al Gore for President Clintonís mistakes, but fifty-four percent said that they did not have more confidence in Gore because of his service as vice president.13 What must Gore do to overcome the Clinton fatigue that seems to be hitting the nation at full force?
Al Gore will have to convince voters that he has the attributes the public is looking for in the next president. To do this will be a tricky task of distancing himself from President Clinton while still defending the administration in office. Ross Baker, Rutgers University political scientist, hits the nail on the head. "Sitting vice presidents have to have tremendous agility; you donít want to destroy the platform that allows you to make the reach [to the presidency], but you donít want to be bound to the platform."14 The Republicans see the Clinton fatigue factor as more of a threat to Gore than the Democrats are willing to face up to. The Democrats acknowledge that Clinton fatigue is present, but they see it having no long-term, negative effects on Al Gore. A former Gore aide said about Goreís thoughts on the Clinton impact, "He thinks about it almost every day."
Gore is hoping that the pattern of comebacks in the history of two-term presidents will prove true, and Clinton will make one last showing in the coming months to redeem his name and boost the support of Gore. The American people are looking for someone they can trust in a time of crisis, who can keep the economy strong, who has new ideas, and who has the personality and temperament to be an effective president. Above all, it is time for a change in Washington. Thirty-four percent of people surveyed said Gore would bring needed change while fifty-six percent said that Bush would bring the kind of change Americans want. People are looking for a new direction due to the energy and ideas that the party in power first had being gone.
The Clinton fatigue factor is showing up in polls between Al Gore and his Democratic opponent Bill Bradley. As of September 13, 1999, Bradley was only five points behind Gore in New Hampshire as reported by CNNís Inside Politics. CNN also reports that Bradley does better with the moderate Democrats even though this views tend to be more to the left. Fifty-six percent of the Bradley supporters are male while more women are voting for Gore. CNNís Inside Politics reports on September 20, 1999, that the race between Bradley and Gore is a dead tie in New York state. Gore is still ahead of Bradley in New Hampshire but the gap is narrowing. Bradleyís main support is in the north while Goreís supporters tend to be blue collared workers from the south. In a nationwide CNN Gallup Poll conducted in May, results were 3:1 in favor of Gore. A similar poll was taken on September 16, and the gap had closed to 2:1 in favor of Gore. This shows that the trend is out to support Bill Bradley, and that Clinton fatigue may be more of a factor than anyone had imagined.
RECORDS AND RUMORS
The next two mini-flaps that erupted dealt with privacy matters and petty political games. Should a presidential hopeful disclose all medical problems? George W. Bush was refusing to release his medical records. A senior staffer said, "The governor is in great health and we will back that up." Is it necessary to dredge up issues in someoneís past that will not impact the candidateís ability to be president? It is understandable if the public would like to know if their leader were suffering from something of a life threatening nature. If a candidate was not expected to live longer than ten years, then America would most likely want to know. A person is elected to the office of president on the assumption that he or she will carry out his or her duties to the best of his or her abilities throughout the term. The public elects a president. The public does not elect a vice president with the hope that the president will fall ill and the vice president will take office. Unfortunately, this issue is up for debate due to the infamous "gray area." People say they would like to know of any mental illnesses, but only if they are serious. What makes a condition serious enough to become a problem to the American public? Besides, any illness can become serious under severe stress and pressure, which leads to the red button theory. If the President is hovering over the button that, if pushed, would unleash World War III and inevitably end life on earth, wouldnít everyone want an individual with perfect mental health?
How much privacy should a person be entitled to, especially someone in such a powerful position? It has become an issue of privacy and the fact that no one can turn on the television or open a newspaper without being bombarded by aspects of peopleís private lives that are intended to remain private. Marlin Fitzwater, former press secretary for President Bush, chastised Bill Clinton for not releasing his medical records. In 1988 President Reagan proclaimed, "I do believe the medical history of a President is something the people have a right to know and I speak from personal experience."15 It seems that the press has a heyday when something is held back. GOP candidate Gary Bauer learned first-hand how blood thirsty the media are.
For five weeks rumors flew about Gary Bauerís alleged infidelity to his wife of twenty-seven years. The story first appeared in a New York tabloid and then was picked up by a newspaper in San Francisco that was distributed on the national news wires. Feeling that things were becoming out of hand, Bauer called the media to a small hotel conference room where he put to rest the allegations of adultery. The room was packed with reporters and eight TV crews. A week prior to this press conference, Bauer had delivered an address on U.S.-China policy where only five reporters showed.16 It goes to show that campaign 2000 is being driven by character issues and not future policies.
Bauer handled the rumor rather unconventionally. He was afraid that if not taken care of the rumor could raise doubts with his core Christian conservative supporters. Bauer called the rumor "a campaign and character assassination" that was thought to have been started by rival Steve Forbesí camp.17 Perhaps what is more important in the situation is that the coverage that Bauer received, although short-lived, was the most attention the candidate had seen or would see. It is a trade-off between the media and the people or stories that they pursue. The media need a story almost as badly as the candidate needs coverage. The trick is to find a happy medium where the media will be interested but will not necessarily destroy the candidateís reputation.
REINVENTING GORE
Gore has more problems than not being able to shake Clinton. His stuffy image is cramping his campaign. Gore has sought the advice of certain controversial advisers to reinvent himself so that the vice president will come across more "hip" for the new millennium. Gore is trimming down and turning up his message by trying to be more spontaneous, engaging, and funny; all attributes that his family and friends swear that he possesses. When Gore speaks out on the support for women, unions, and racial diversity, he proclaims, "I feel passionately about these issues!"18 It would be nice to feel the passion through his words and actions rather than to be told that the passion is within the candidate. The voter may not be able to see the passion through the condescending manner in which Gore delivers the message. Gore has what some might call a charisma deficit.
Al Gore has moved his headquarters to Tennessee in an effort to change. He has also renovated his campaign staff by bringing in fresh faces. One new face on the scene is Naomi Wolf. She has him changing his clothes from the "presidential" blues to more brown, olive green, and tan shades. Wolfís advising seems harmless, but the public and other Gore advisers were unsure about Wolfís position in the campaign. Originally, Wolf was receiving a generous $15,000 a month. This put Wolf in the bracket of the highest-paid consultants in Washington. More importantly, Wolfís paychecks were being funneled through a consulting firm so that no one would know of her employment on the campaign.19 If this is not reason enough to believe that a secret exists concerning Naomi Wolf, then examining her occupation, a feminist author who writes about teaching children mutual masturbation and oral sex as a substitute to intercourse, might spark interest amongst conservative Americans. It is obvious that Wolfís provocative ideas will create tensions between Gore advisers as they try to put distance between a scandalous President Clinton and a boy scoutish Vice President Al Gore.
SPITTING FIRE
The first mini-flap to appear centering on John McCainís name was, as all mini-flaps tend to be, rather negative. McCain is said to have an explosive temper. It comes down to two conflicting views of this presidential candidate. On one side is the Vietnam war hero who was held captive and emerged a changed man, ready to take on the world, and on the other is the abrasive, ill-tempered candidate who repeatedly lashes out at reporters and fellow politicians. Will the mini-flap of McCainís volcanic temper erupt into a major problem? Bill Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, says, "The temper issue probably helps McCain, especially if he handles it well."20 The increase in coverage has helped McCain become better known across the country. John McCainís team blamed the Bush camp for orchestrating the personal character attacks but was flattered that the Bush campaign had felt threatened enough to do so.
Not only does America want a president of sound mental health, but also a president who will not do irrational things in a fit of rage. It may be time for a calming presence in the White House to restore order and bring America back to the times of "Morning in America." GOP ad-maker, Alex Castellanos explains, "Americans love an underdog who battles, but the closer you get to the big chair and the big red button, itís a steadier hand you want."21 The public will have to decide whether or not McCainís temper makes him unfit for the office of the president. Dan Schunur, McCainís communications director, suggests that a temper may be linked to a "go-getter" attitude. "Show me a politician whoís never offended anyone and Iíll show you a politician whoís never gotten anything done."22 An explosive attitude may indeed be beneficial. Some of Americaís best politicians, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Bill Clinton, were renowned for their outbursts. Someone who speaks passionately about a position on a certain controversial policy may have his or her passion mistaken for anger. Perhaps McCain is just a passionate person that even Al Gore could mimic.
POP QUIZ
George W. Bush miserably failed a pop quiz given to him by reporter Andy Hiller of WHDH-TV in Boston on November 3. Hiller asked Bush to name the leaders of four countries: India, Pakistan, Chechnya, and Taiwan. Bushís fumbling answers were repeatedly run on national television November 5, and stories were written in newspapers across the country concerning his inability to answer correctly.23 The Texas governorís responses were not as disappointing as his lack of recovery. Bush is not the foreign policy buff, but he did not possess the presidential mettle to counter attack Hiller with a witty response. It is more important that a president know what events are taking place in other nations and less important to know the name of that countryís leader. Karen Hughes, spokeswoman for the Bush campaign, said, "What the American people want to know is not whether a candidate has memorized the names of hundreds of premiers and prime ministers...What they do want to know is does a candidate have a clear vision of Americaís strategic interests around the world and can the candidate exert American leadership in the world."24 Hughesís statement is correct, but Bush did not come across as the leader this world wants or needs.
It is clear that the 2000 campaign is a character race. With the exception of a few debates in the months of November and December, most of the coverage has had nothing to do with policies. The media have put an emphasis on image, so it will be up to the candidates to deliver. Even though George W. Bush has had to bear the camelís share of the mini-flaps, he has received the most coverage and it has probably helped him to become better known. It is also clear that the media have reported on negative attributes or occurrences. The candidates can only hope that whatever stories do come out that he or she will be able to bounce back after the mini-flap. With the airing of the first political advertisements, the candidates are able to take their messages into the homes and businesses of non-active voters through television. Most Americans who follow politics are aware of the goings-on, but those who only show interest when it comes time to vote will be the group that determines who the next president shall be.
It is a difficult task to send an image that will captivate the members of the audience who are not motivated to read newspapers or do research on candidates. The thirty seconds that the candidatesí ads air may determine whether or not someone will vote for them. It is scary that the public chooses the worldís most powerful leader by an image projected through the media. "Images become history, more than traces of a specific even in the past, when they are presented and received as explanatory accounts of collective reality. They become history when they are conceived as symbolic events in a shared culture."25 The voter may not realize that he or she is making history when he or she drops the ballot in the box, but the decision the voter makes is partly shaped by the images that the voter has been bombarded with throughout the campaign. The decision to vote for a particular candidate may be deeply rooted in the voterís subconscious due to images that he or she has seen. This is history in the making.
Endnotes
1 "On Politics" http://www.washingtonpost.com.(December 2, 1999).
2 Slater, Wayne. "Bush camp raises nearly $50 million" http://www.dallasnews.com, 31 Aug. 1999. (September 1, 1999).
3 Gilbert, Craig. "Eleciton 2000." Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 25 July 1999.
4 Greenberger, Scott S. "Bushís cash stash a lightning rod for reformers." The Atlanta Journal and Constitution. 18 July 1999.
5 Gibbs, Nancy. "Iíve Made Mistakes..." Time 30 Aug. 1999.
6 Price, Deb. "Handling the drug question makes front-runner vulnerable." The Detroit News 20 Aug. 1999.
7 Castellanos, Alex. Interview. "Inside Politics." CNN 23 Aug. 1999.
8 "Barbara Bush never asked son about cocaine use." http://www.dallasnews.com, 9 Sep. 1999. (September 1, 1999).
9 Taylor, Stuart Jr. "Why the Story Matters." Newsweek 30 Aug. 1999.
10 Choate, Pat. Interview. "Inside Politics." CNN 13 Sep. 1999.
11 Broder, David. "Good timing for a third party." The Des Moines Register 16 Sep. 1999.
12 "Ross Perotís re-entry on 2000 stage possible, key ally says." http://www.cnn.com, 10 Oct. 1999.
13 Balz, Dan. "Clinton-Weary Public Has Doubts About Gore." Washington Post 8 Sep. 1999, A1.
14 Connolly, Ceci. "Gore Tries to Shed Role of Loyal Understudy." Washington Post 22 Nov. 1999, A1.
15 "Bush Refusing To Release Medical Records." Drudge Report 19 Sep. 1999.
16 Baum, Geraldine. "The Media Swarm to Bauer for a Political Nonevent." Los Angeles Times 30 Sep. 1999.
17 "Bauer Denies Adultery Rumor." http://www.abcnews.com, 29 Sep. 1999.
18 Turque, Bill. "Reinventing Gore." Newsweek 4 Oct. 1999.
19 Connolly, Ceci. "Controversial Feminist Paid By Gore Camp." http://www.washingtonpostcom, 1 Nov. 1999. (November 3, 1999).
20 Kurtz, Howard. "Analysis: Searching for the Real McCain." Washington Post 3 Nov. 1999, A8.
21 Kurtz, Howard. "Analysis: Searching for the Real McCain." Washington Post 3 Nov. 1999, A8.
22 Kurtz, Howard. "McCain Tries to Temper Reports of Outbursts." Washington Post 2 Nov. 1999, A3.
23 Aucoin, Don. "Fair test or ëgotcha journalismí?." The Des Moines Register 6 Nov. 1999.
24 Neal, Terry M. "Bush Falters in Foreign Policy Quiz." Washington Post 5 Nov. 1999, A1.
25 Trachtenberg, Alan. Reading American Photographs: Images as History
Mathew Brady to Walker Evans 1989.