December 6, 1999

McCain passes on Iowa campaigning,
plans to come here for two debates

By Patrick Thornton
CyberCaucus 2000 News Service
Drake University

DES MOINES, Iowa--U.S. Sen. John McCain announced last month that he is skipping the Iowa caucuses because he simply doesn't have enough money to make a strong showing. In a letter to the chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, Kayne Robinson, McCain said he would be in Iowa for two televised debates.

McCain's announcemnt was no surprise to many political observers. "The main reason McCain isn't going to be here is because it would be too late," said Stephen Schmidt, a political scientist at Iowa State University. "All of the money and activists are all spoken for by the other candidates. He would have a hard time getting something going at this late stage of the game."

Schmidt said the caucuses are not as good of a predictor of the outcome of a general election as local media would want us to believe. The whole process has become so top-heavy, with many primaries and caucuses pushed to the front of the political cycle, and as a result, Iowa has lost some of its national prominence, he said.

"What a candidate needs early on is momentum. McCain didn't have the time or money to get some started in Iowa, but he did in New Hampshire," Schmidt said. "If he shows well in New Hampshire, it will be irrelevant that he didn't come to Iowa."

Ann Dougherty, communications director for the Iowa Republican Party, said McCain will be missed. "It's really unfortunate. Sen. McCain is a great guy, and we wanted a full slate of candidates for the voters to see," she said.

A candidate can show well in Iowa with a strong grass-roots campaign, Dougherty said. Candidates--such as Jimmy Carter in 1976--have done well in Iowa without a lot of fund raising or money spent on advertisements and personnel.

In his book. "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event," Hugh Winebrenner, professor of public administration at Drake University, said that after Carter's success in the Iowa caucuses, he was judged as a viable candidate by the news media and as a result the voting public.

David Yepsen, Des Moines Register political reporter, said the caucuses are responsible for reducing the field of potential candidates from which the rest of the country will choose. Many second-tier candidates will drop out of the race following a poor showing in Iowa, he said.

Dougherty recognized the kind of effort that goes into organizing a successful run at the White House when so much happens so early. "It makes it harder on a candidates when the primaries and caucuses all run together like this," she said. "All the money and organization has to be there from the start if a candidate wants a legitimate shot at winning. I can see why Sen. McCain had to pick and choose."

McCain has made campaign finance reform a campaign focus. Dougherty said she was not surprised that McCain based his decision not to come on a lack of money. "He has always said that candidates must spend too much money to win an election," she said.