Feb. 4, 1999

Caucus expert: Role of Iowa caucuses
smaller than in past but still important

By Mike Decaire
CyberCaucus 2000 News Service
Drake University

DES MOINES, Iowa--Iowa caucus expert Hugh Winebrenner says the Iowa caucus is not as important as it used to be, but Republicans and Democrats are already making visits to the state in preparation for the 2000 event.

"The Iowa caucus won't make anyone, but it'll break many," said Winebrenner, professor of public administration at Drake University.

Winebrenner has been keeping track of presidential hopefuls' stops in Des Moines since 1986. He is also the author of "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: the Making of a Media Event," which examines the history and influence of the Iowa caucuses.

Winebrenner said Iowa and other states with early votes have become less important in recent years.

"Iowa and New Hampshire don't play as much of a role anymore," he said. "They can't propel a candidate as they used to."

Winebrenner said Iowa's caucuses first achieved their "fame and glory" when hopeful Jimmy Carter used Iowa in 1976 to gain the momentum that would eventually place him in the White House.

"No one's done that since," Winebrenner said.

Winebrenner said strong showings in the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primaries have been replaced by money in the bank as the key to a candidate's momentum.

"The feeling is that someone will need $20 million in the bank by Jan. 1 to be a viable candidate," he said. "And not many can do that." Winebrenner said it remained to be seen if any Democrat besides Vice President Al Gore could even approach that figure.

Still, the Iowa caucuses will be a major media event, Winebrenner said, as they have been every election year since 1976.

"Iowa's been legitimized as the 'starting point,'" Winebrenner said. "Louisiana might try to go earlier, but the press and pundits believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are the big parts of the game, and the candidates have to play the game."

And the candidates have already started. Winebrenner tracks each of their days in the state. If a candidate comes to Iowa and makes a political appearance, Winebrenner logs it as a day. A visit to the state, then, could include several days.

Winebrenner keeps track of declared presidential candidates, those still courting the idea of a run at the White House, and those who just seem to be constantly running for president in some way. Newspaper reports, e-mails and faxes, conversations with reporters like David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register, calls from the candidates' campaign staffs, and Internet searching keep Winebrenner up-to-date on who will be where in Iowa.

He begins a new counting cycle when the president is inaugurated, and he counts until the day of the caucuses.

The 2000 caucus cycle began Jan. 20, 1997, with the inauguration of President Bill Clinton. In the little more than two years that have passed in the cycle, Winebrenner has counted 252 days for potential major party candidates' in Iowa.

Through the end of January 1999, Democratic candidates make up 51 of those days. Candidates who are considering or who have dropped out of the race make up a sizable portion of those days, as Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone and Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey have 18 days and eight days in the state, respectively. House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, who recently announced he would skip the presidential race to concentrate on winning the House speakership, has 10 days in the state.

The two Democrats expected to fight for the party's nomination, Gore and New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, have not spent as much time here. Gore has six days in the state, while Bradley has just one. Bradley was scheduled to be in Iowa Feb. 1-4, though.

The other 201 candidate days in the state belong to Republicans.

"There's no heir apparent in the party," Winebrenner said. "That's the first time that's happened since the 1940s. It's not like last time around when you had Bob Dole. There's always a battle, but that heir apparent tends to eliminate a lot of people right off the bat."

Without a clear front-runner, more than a dozen possible Republican candidates have made stops in Iowa already. New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith leads the pack with 41 days, and Lamar Alexander, former Tennessee governor, is not far behind with 37. Ohio Rep. John Kasich has been here 18 days, as has billionaire Steve Forbes, who ran in 1996. Missouri Sen. John Ashcroft, who has now decided against running, has 17 days in Iowa. 1996 vice presidential candidate Jack Kemp has nine days, and former vice president Dan Quayle has been here 19 days. Talk show host Alan Keyes adds 15 more.

Winebrenner has also counted four days in Iowa from outgoing Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

Some of the bigger names among Republican candidates have had less visibility in the state so far, though. Elizabeth Dole has been in Iowa just four days and Arizona Sen. John McCain only two. They have had more of a presence than Texas Gov. George Bush Jr., though, who has not yet been in Iowa during this cycle.

Winebrenner said the numbers will start increasing rapidly soon, as candidates begin descending on Iowa to make speeches, raise money for local candidates and meet with potential supporters.

"They're all just trying to convince the press that they're legitimate candidates," he said.

Some have already visited, and others already have set up paid campaign staffs, which Winebrenner also tracks. Possible Republican candidates Quayle, Forbes, Kasich, Alexander and conservative activist Gary Bauer all have paid staffers in Iowa.

No Democrats have staffers in Iowa yet. Winebrenner said Wellstone had just hired someone when he pulled out of the race because of a bad back.

But the candidates have good reason to take the state seriously and start early, though it isn't as important as it used to be, Winebrenner said. "Iowa definitely will play the role of winnower," he said.

Since 1976, no major party nominee has finished worse than third in the Iowa caucuses.